Big Tech AI Earnings Shock Markets: Meta $135B Spend, Microsoft Loses $357B, OpenAI IPO Plans | January 31, 2026

Daily AI Blog

January 31, 2026

📋 Quick Takeaways

Meta announces unprecedented $115-135 billion AI capex for 2026, nearly doubling 2025 spending as it pursues “superintelligence”

Microsoft loses $357 billion in market value after Azure growth slows to 39%, the second-largest single-day loss in U.S. history

OpenAI targeting Q4 2026 IPO at potential $1 trillion valuation despite not expecting profitability until 2030

Amazon in talks for $50 billion OpenAI investment, threatening Microsoft’s exclusive partnership

Tesla confirms Optimus robot production timeline for end of 2026, discontinuing Model S/X to free factory space

Anthropic engineers report 100% AI-written code, signaling major shift in software development paradigm

🏢 Big Tech Earnings & AI Infrastructure

Meta Announces Record $115-135 Billion AI Infrastructure Spending for 2026

Unprecedented Investment: Meta Platforms revealed the most aggressive AI infrastructure spending plan in corporate history during its Q4 2025 earnings call, forecasting capital expenditures between $115 billion and $135 billion for 2026—nearly double the $72 billion spent in 2025.

Earnings Highlights:

Q4 revenue: $59.9 billion (beat estimates of $58.4 billion)
EPS: $8.88 (beat estimates of $8.16)
Q1 2026 revenue guidance: $53.5-56.5 billion (above $51.27 billion consensus)
Total 2026 expenses projected: $162-169 billion

Strategic Context: CEO Mark Zuckerberg declared 2026 will be “a big year for delivering personal superintelligence” and announced accelerated AI acceleration efforts after falling behind Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic in leading AI models during 2025.

Market Reaction: Meta stock jumped over 10% in extended trading, contrasting sharply with Microsoft’s selloff, as investors rewarded Meta’s demonstrated AI monetization through advertising revenue growth of 24%.

Sources: Yahoo Finance | Fortune | Bloomberg

Microsoft Loses $357 Billion in Historic Selloff as Azure Growth Disappoints

Market Shock: Microsoft shares plunged nearly 10% following its Q2 FY2026 earnings report, wiping out approximately $357 billion in market value—the second-largest single-day loss in U.S. corporate history.

Financial Performance:

Revenue: $81.27 billion (beat $80.27 billion estimates)
Adjusted EPS: $4.14 (beat $3.97 estimates)
Azure growth: 39% (missed “whisper number” expectations)
Quarterly AI infrastructure capex: $37.5 billion (record)

Key Concerns:

Azure growth deceleration from 40% to 39%
Gross margin narrowest in three years at 68%
45% of cloud backlog tied to single customer (OpenAI)
No clear timeline for AI infrastructure ROI

Industry Implications: Analysts describe this as the end of Wall Street’s “honeymoon phase with generative AI,” with investors now demanding concrete returns rather than future promises.

CEO Commentary: Satya Nadella stated: “We are only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion and already Microsoft has built an AI business that is larger than some of our biggest franchises.”

Sources: CNBC | CNBC Market Analysis | FinancialContent

💰 Major AI Funding & IPO Developments

OpenAI Targets Q4 2026 IPO Amid $100 Billion Fundraising Push

IPO Preparations: OpenAI has begun informal talks with Wall Street banks and is staffing up its finance team in preparation for a potential fourth-quarter 2026 initial public offering, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Valuation Trajectory:

Current valuation: $500 billion
Target IPO valuation: Up to $1 trillion
Pre-IPO funding round in progress: $100 billion raise at $830 billion valuation
Revenue projection: $200 billion annually by 2030

Financial Reality:

2025 revenue: $20 billion (confirmed by CEO Sam Altman)
Profitability timeline: Not expected until 2030
Total data center spending commitment: $1.4 trillion by 2033
Capital raised to date: Approximately $64 billion

Market Significance: If successful, OpenAI’s IPO would be among the largest in history and would provide the first comprehensive public financial disclosure of a pure-play frontier AI company.

Sources: Fortune | Wall Street Journal via Stocktwits | Fast Company

Amazon in Advanced Talks for $50 Billion OpenAI Investment

Transformative Deal: Amazon is reportedly in advanced negotiations to invest $50 billion into OpenAI, potentially disrupting Microsoft’s multi-year exclusive partnership with the ChatGPT creator.

Deal Structure:

Investment type: “Chips-for-equity” arrangement
Amazon offerings: Access to proprietary Trainium and Inferentia AI chips
Additional benefits: Significant dedicated server capacity within AWS
Part of larger $100 billion funding round

Strategic Implications:

Would value OpenAI at approximately $830 billion
Challenges Microsoft’s 27% ownership stake in OpenAI
Represents shift from “exclusive” partnerships to multi-cloud strategies
Signals intensifying competition in AI infrastructure market

Regulatory Scrutiny: The FTC and European Commission have launched inquiries into “circular financing” arrangements where cloud providers invest billions in AI startups that then spend those funds on the investor’s cloud services.

Sources: FinancialContent

🚗 Automotive & Robotics AI

Tesla Confirms Optimus Robot Production Timeline, Discontinuing Model S/X

Production Milestone: Tesla announced during its Q4 2025 earnings call that Optimus humanoid robot production will begin by end of 2026, with the company converting Model S and Model X production lines at Fremont to robot manufacturing.

Financial Performance:

Revenue: $24.9 billion (vs. $25.1 billion estimated)
Adjusted EPS: $0.50 (beat $0.45 estimates)
Gross margin: 20.1% (significantly beat 17.1% estimates)
Energy storage deployment: Record 14.2 GWh in Q4

Optimus Timeline:

Gen 3 prototype unveiling: Q1 2026
Production line capacity: 1 million units annually
Model S/X discontinuation: Q2 2026
Consumer sales target: End of 2027

Robotaxi Expansion: Tesla announced plans to expand robotaxi service to Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas in H1 2026, with safety drivers removed from Austin fleet on limited basis.

Analyst Response: Morningstar raised Tesla fair value estimate from $300 to $400, citing higher robotaxi valuation and Optimus production timeline.

Sources: Yahoo Finance | Morningstar | WebProNews

📱 Consumer Tech & AI Strategy

Apple Reports Record $143.8 Billion Revenue, Faces AI Strategy Questions

Record Quarter: Apple posted its best-ever quarter with $143.8 billion in revenue, up 16% year-over-year, but investors remained skeptical of the company’s AI strategy.

Financial Highlights:

Revenue: $143.8 billion (beat $138.5 billion estimates)
EPS: $2.84 (beat $2.67 estimates)
iPhone revenue: $85.3 billion (up 23% YoY, all-time record)
Greater China revenue: $25.5 billion (up 38% YoY)
Services revenue: $30 billion (all-time record)

AI Concerns: When asked about AI monetization timeline and the recent Google Gemini partnership for Siri, CEO Tim Cook provided non-specific responses: “We’re bringing intelligence to more of what people love, and we’re integrating it across the operating system in a personal and private way.”

Supply Constraints: Apple CFO noted the company is in “supply chase” mode due to advanced manufacturing node constraints and memory chip prices spiking 20-30% from AI data center demand.

Market Reaction: Despite the blowout quarter, Apple stock gained only 0.2% in after-hours trading, reflecting investor disappointment with lack of AI roadmap clarity.

Sources: Fortune | MacRumors | Yahoo Finance

🤖 AI Development & Engineering

Anthropic, OpenAI Engineers Report 100% AI-Written Code

Industry Transformation: Boris Cherny, head of Anthropic’s Claude Code, announced that 100% of his code is now written by AI, marking a potential paradigm shift in software engineering.

Key Statements:

Cherny: “For me personally, it has been 100% for two+ months now, I don’t even make small edits by hand”
Company-wide at Anthropic: 70-90% AI-generated code
Claude Code itself: 90% of its code written by Claude Code

Industry Corroboration:

OpenAI researcher “Roon” confirmed: “100%, I don’t write code anymore”
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei (at Davos): AI could handle “most, maybe all” of software engineering within 6-12 months
Microsoft: 30% of code AI-generated
Industry average (per Science journal study): 29% of GitHub Python functions AI-written

Hiring Implications: Cherny noted Anthropic now hires “mostly generalists rather than specialists” since AI handles implementation details.

Sources: Fortune | Yahoo Finance | Axios

Google DeepMind’s David Silver Leaves to Found Superintelligence Startup

Major Departure: David Silver, the Google DeepMind researcher who led AlphaGo, AlphaZero, and AlphaProof, has left the company to found a new AI startup called Ineffable Intelligence.

Silver’s Background:

Led AlphaGo project (defeated world Go champion, 2016)
Developed AlphaZero (superhuman chess, shogi, Go)
Created MuZero (learned games without knowing rules)
Contributed to AlphaProof (International Mathematical Olympiad)
Over 200,000 citations, h-index of 97

New Venture:

Company: Ineffable Intelligence
Location: London
Focus: Superintelligence development
Status: Actively recruiting AI researchers, seeking VC funding

Industry Context: Silver joins other researchers leaving established labs to pursue superintelligence, including Ilya Sutskever (Safe Superintelligence, valued at $30 billion) and Reflection AI founders.

Sources: Fortune | Yahoo Finance

🌏 Geopolitical AI Developments

U.S. Lawmaker Alleges NVIDIA Helped DeepSeek Advance AI for Chinese Military

Congressional Allegations: Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), chair of the House Select Committee on China, sent a letter to the U.S. Commerce Department alleging NVIDIA provided technical assistance to Chinese AI startup DeepSeek.

Key Claims:

NVIDIA engineers helped DeepSeek optimize algorithms, software, and hardware
DeepSeek’s AI training required only 2.788 million GPU hours using NVIDIA H800 chips
Enabled training of powerful models with far fewer computing resources than U.S. developers typically need
U.S. officials believe DeepSeek technology has been used to support China’s military

NVIDIA’s Position: The letter noted “NVIDIA treated DeepSeek accordingly—as a legitimate commercial partner deserving of standard technical support” at a time when no public evidence of military links existed.

Regulatory Context: The allegations emerge as the Trump administration approved restricted sales of NVIDIA’s newer H200 chips to China with a 25% tariff.

Sources: Yahoo Finance | AOL

DeepSeek Expands into AI Search and Autonomous Agents

Strategic Expansion: Chinese AI startup DeepSeek is aggressively recruiting engineers to build a multilingual, multimodal AI search engine and autonomous agent systems, according to job postings first reported by Bloomberg.

Capabilities Under Development:

AI search engine processing text, images, and audio
Persistent autonomous agents operating with minimal human oversight
Continuous background AI operations
Direct competition with Google and OpenAI

Hiring Details:

Over 40 positions listed on Boss Zhipin
Salaries up to 90,000 yuan monthly plus bonuses
Locations: Hangzhou and Beijing
Focus: Full-stack engineers mastering infrastructure and algorithms

Market Position: DeepSeek currently holds 4% of global chatbot market share (vs. ChatGPT at 68%, Google Gemini at 18%), with usage surging 2-4x regional averages in Africa.

Sources: WebProNews | Engadget

📊 Market Analysis

Big Tech “Triple Threat” Earnings Reshape AI Investment Thesis

Market Dynamics: The week’s earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla have fundamentally shifted how investors evaluate AI investments.

Key Divergence:

Company	Stock Reaction	AI Monetization
Meta	+10%	Proven (ad revenue)
Microsoft	-10%	Deferred (infrastructure)
Tesla	+3%	Speculative (robotics)

Emerging Themes:

“Show Me the Money” Era: Wall Street is no longer rewarding AI spending promises; concrete revenue attribution is required
Consumer vs. Enterprise AI: Consumer-facing AI (Meta’s advertising) showing immediate returns; enterprise AI (Microsoft Azure) facing longer monetization cycles
Infrastructure Fatigue: Questions mounting about when $500+ billion in combined Big Tech AI capex will generate proportional returns
Concentration Risk: Microsoft’s 45% OpenAI dependency creating “single point of failure” concerns among institutional investors

Historical Parallel: Analysts compare current AI infrastructure buildout to late 1990s fiber-optic networks, where massive spending preceded profitable applications by several years.

Sources: FinancialContent | Bloomberg

🔮 Looking Ahead

Key Trends to Watch:

OpenAI IPO preparations and S-1 filing timeline
Amazon-OpenAI deal regulatory scrutiny and finalization
Tesla Optimus Gen 3 prototype unveiling (expected Q1 2026)
Alphabet and Amazon earnings next week completing Big Tech AI picture
DeepSeek V4 model release reportedly scheduled for mid-February
U.S.-China AI chip policy developments following NVIDIA allegations

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Last Updated: January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CST